A pure military look at Indo-Pak Conflict 2019

Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win- Sun Tzu

Long before Huawei and ZTE took on the world, some 500 years before the birth of Jesus Christ there was a Chinese General called Sun Tzu. His book, the Art of War, has shaped military, business and marketing strategy the world over. Most armies of the world teach his works (including the US army), literally, as textbook material.

Now, I will use some of his quotes to analyze the current Indo Pak conflict (2019) based on a by now questionable Pulwama attack that I already wrote about.

India was gripped in war fever, led by their Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, a man many accuse of genocide, racism and promoting hatred against the majority of Indian minorities be they Muslims, Sikhs, Christians (meat eaters!) or even lower caste Hindus.

Rattled by immense poverty in India or the rape and crimes crisis as per the BBC, all point towards the failure of the Modi Government in bringing India out of anything but rhetoric. His detractors claim the entire Pulwama attack where 40 CRPF soldier was an inside job to use the Indian Army to gain support for Modi’s re election campaign above all.

Hence while Modi constantly called for war, Pakistani PM Imran Khan constantly called for restraint. From a pure military perspective, Sun Tzu called warfare “deception

“All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.”

While India bombed barren fields & mountains in Balakot claiming it hit “terrorist camps“, Pakistan, on the other hand, I’m privy to an internal military conversation someone shared on social media, went right into the heart of Indian Military Complex and dropped ammo at a safe distance delivering the message that “we can do what we want, when we want, how we want” to their apparently larger adversaries. I am also told that a third country pilot used by the Indians  is held hostage in Pakistan while the Indian one was returned with a friendly cup of tea.

From a pure military perspective, Pakistan Army is neither a weak nor a rogue force, right from the days of Zia Ul Haq when the Americans played funny with the F16s, Pakistan cozied up to China and other allies in the region and built for itself not only a strong air arsenal but also a nuclear one, falling perhaps short of enabling others with it too, however having the capability to do so, just as nuclear armed nations of the world have been and have done so as well to their “allies” hence the focus by some on “denuclearizing” Pakistan.

Bear in mind, Pakistan is a much smaller country than India, it is hence easier to defend, also homogeneity in Pakistan means, as per Sun Tzu, a niftier and well knit army – public trust and interaction. India is literally the opposite, huge landscape and mega issues in its ranks, caste, faith, language and interests, a divided nation is harder to protect and finds it harder to find the motivation needed to fight, as the end goals are hazy, confusion compounds diverse and even opposing regional interests. This is simply a strength from a military perspective i.e. smaller size and more or less uniform social fabric and motivation.

Textbook interpretation of Sun Tzu in this case points to a very different scenario than the one being portrayed to the world. Pakistan trying to avoid conflict while India having initially tried to pounce upon whilst defeated in almost all it’s endeavors is a sign of Pakistan’s unrevealed strong offensive capability. If indeed a war breaks out, it won’t be at the behest or diktats of the Indians, this is a simple inference from an analysis of how the political and military responses thereof as of the February and March 2019 unfolded.

A proof of this inference is India whimpering away from this conflict after a lot of overt provocation.

While deescalation of this politically motivated conflict appears to be the desire of Pakistani Army and Political leadership, but the Indians continuing with rhetoric and anti Muslim tightening in Kashmir which seems to upset Pakistan a lot, may act as a provocation to what might be the inevitable start of the 3rd, possibly nuclear, world war.

It also appears India is not alone in this conflict, it has active support of the Iranians, and surprisingly the stated arch enemy of Iranians i.e. you-know-who in this conflict. They would all like to play ball, but Pakistan with its strategic alliances is very well placed to act cold or hot start.

True resolution of this conflict asks for responsible Indians to unvote or dethrone a racist win/lose leadership and focus on resolving conflicts and issues, internal to India and externals as well, be it Kashmir, Sikhs, Muslim minorities or Hindu minorities, women’s safety from rapes, widespread crimes and poverty.

The writer hopes, despite his Sun Tzu based prediction of a war sooner than we think, that responsible Indians will nip provocation in the bud and work in a mutually beneficial way to attack common enemies of extremism, poverty and lawlessness.

Denuclearization of the world may someday be a reality, but it will need a sincere win/win effort by all parties concerned. As of now I see devious, envious and manipulative blocks, all spreading their version of falsehood and branding it as the “truth” – however, in the end, truth, for whatever it is or worth, prevails.

CrystalHeart Kazmi blahblah.info

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